A new poll out of New Jersey is raising eyebrows across the political world. The traditionally Democratic state may be less solidly blue than it once was. A recent survey shows Republican Vice President JD Vance nearly tied with Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup. The poll, conducted by SoCal Strategies, found Newsom with 43 percent support and Vance with 42 percent. That’s a one-point gap—well within the poll’s margin of error.
This finding is significant. In 2020, Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 points. Even in 2024, when Vice President Kamala Harris was the Democratic nominee, she still carried the state by six points. The fact that Vance, a supporter of President Trump’s “America First” policies, is within reach in a state like New Jersey suggests a political shift may be underway.
There are a few possible reasons for this. One explanation is that voters in New Jersey, like many across the country, may be moving away from the Democratic Party’s national leadership. Economic concerns, rising crime rates, and frustrations with federal policies could be pushing some independents and even traditional Democrats to consider Republican alternatives. Vance’s close alignment with Trump’s policies may also be attractive to voters who feel left behind by the political establishment.
The same poll also looked at New Jersey’s upcoming 2025 governor’s race. Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads Republican Jack Ciattarelli by seven points, 52 to 45. That’s not a blowout, especially in a state where Democrats usually win statewide races comfortably. Other polls suggest the race is even tighter. One survey by co/efficient showed Sherrill ahead by just one point. These numbers suggest that Republicans are gaining traction with voters in a state that hasn’t elected a GOP U.S. senator since the early 1970s.
The poll also reveals how different groups are leaning. Sherrill enjoys strong support among young voters, women, Black voters, and those with college degrees. Ciattarelli, meanwhile, appears to be picking up support from working-class voters and independents. If Republicans can continue to close the gap among these groups, they may have a real chance at flipping key races in the state.
Looking ahead to the 2028 race for the White House, it’s still unclear who will run. President Trump, now in his second term, is barred by the Constitution from seeking a third term. While he has joked about running again or serving as vice president, he recently dismissed the idea of being on the ticket in 2028. Instead, he has floated names like JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible future leaders of the Republican Party.
For his part, Vance has said it’s too early to talk about 2028. In a recent interview, he said his focus is on doing his job as vice president and helping President Trump succeed. Still, he didn’t rule out the idea of running in the future. If the poll numbers in New Jersey are any indication, Vance could be a serious contender if he decides to run.
On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris are both being discussed as possible nominees. Harris recently said she’s “not done” with politics, hinting at a possible second run. Newsom has also said he’s thinking about a 2028 campaign but won’t make a decision until after the 2026 midterm elections.
The early polling in New Jersey may not predict the outcome of the 2028 election, but it does show that the political map could be changing. States that were once considered safely Democratic may now be up for grabs, depending on the candidates and the issues at stake. For Republicans focused on expanding their appeal and winning over new voters, this is a positive sign. For Democrats, it serves as a warning that their strongholds may no longer be as secure as they once were.
